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How to build an SIR infectious disease model
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Explaining time-based challenges and system dynamics
Get the Silico modelling software
Step 1: Aim to limit cases and deaths
Set up the model and its time-scale
Create a Variable for deaths per day
The "bath-tub" of infected people
Add the Infected Stock to the model
Calculate deaths per day from the Infected number
How "flow rates" fill and drain the Infected population
Add the flows to the model
Summary of this stage - and a credit-card analogy
Infected people drive newly-infected people per day
Check the numbers and fix errors
Fewer Susceptible people slows the new-infected rate
Add the flow of people recovering
Exploring scenarios
Feedback mechanisms in the model
Deaths are another flow-rate
Share your model with others
SIR basics and the "R number"
The SEIRD and localisable COVD models
Agile modelling, and starting from existing models
What dynamic models are, and what they can do
Explaining time-based challenges and system dynamics
Preview
Get the Silico modelling software
Preview
1. Our objectives - to limit cases and deaths
Step 1: Aim to limit cases and deaths
Set up the model and its time-scale
Create a Variable for deaths per day
2. The Stock of infected people drives deaths
The "bath-tub" of infected people
Add the Infected Stock to the model
Calculate deaths per day from the Infected number
3. The Infected population is added-to and depleted
How "flow rates" fill and drain the Infected population
Add the flows to the model
4. The Infected population drives new infections and recoveries
Summary of this stage - and a credit-card analogy
Infected people drive newly-infected people per day
Check the numbers and fix errors
Fewer Susceptible people slows the new-infected rate
Add the flow of people recovering
Completing the model - and sharing it
Exploring scenarios
Feedback mechanisms in the model
Deaths are another flow-rate
Share your model with others
'SEIRD' and COVID-19 models and AgileSD modelling
SIR basics and the "R number"
Preview
The SEIRD and localisable COVD models
Preview
Agile modelling, and starting from existing models
Preview
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