How to build SIR infection models

Course Summary

Learn how to build for yourself a basic 'SIR' model for the spread of an infectious disease in a town or region over 120 days. From key objectives - to limit numbers infected and dying - see how to set up the stock of Infected people ("I"), how to make those people infect other Susceptible people ("S") and later Recover ("R"). Learn each principle and copy our demos to actually build the model. See more developments of the model and a COVID19 case.

Course Curriculum

What dynamic models are, and what they can do
2 Lessons
- Explaining time-based challenges and system dynamics
  Preview
- Get the Silico modelling software
  Preview
1. Our objectives - to limit cases and deaths
3 Lessons
- Step 1: Aim to limit cases and deaths
  Start
- Set up the model and its time-scale
  Start
- Create a Variable for deaths per day
  Start
2. The Stock of infected people drives deaths
3 Lessons
- The "bath-tub" of infected people
  Start
- Add the Infected Stock to the model
  Start
- Calculate deaths per day from the Infected number
  Start
3. The Infected population is added-to and depleted
2 Lessons
- How "flow rates" fill and drain the Infected population
  Start
- Add the flows to the model
  Start
4. The Infected population drives new infections and recoveries
5 Lessons
- Summary of this stage - and a credit-card analogy
  Start
- Infected people drive newly-infected people per day
  Start
- Check the numbers and fix errors
  Start
- Fewer Susceptible people slows the new-infected rate
  Start
- Add the flow of people recovering
  Start
Completing the model - and sharing it
4 Lessons
- Exploring scenarios
  Start
- Feedback mechanisms in the model
  Start
- Deaths are another flow-rate
  Start
- Share your model with others
  Start
'SEIRD' and COVID-19 models and AgileSD modelling
3 Lessons
- SIR basics and the "R number"
  Preview
- The SEIRD and localisable COVD models
  Preview
- Agile modelling, and starting from existing models
  Preview

Kim Warren

Kim is an experienced strategy professional, teacher and publisher of online courses and teaching resources on business modeling – fast becoming a main-stream capability for executives, consultants and business students. He also offers resources to help model non-business challenges, notably in health-care and international aid.

After senior corporate strategy roles, Kim joined London Business School, to teach on MBA and Executive programs. To overcome serious limitations with standard strategy methods, he developed the powerful strategy dynamics modelling method for designing and managing strategy for any organisation or challenge. Once a specialist skill, building these simulations is now easier, faster and more reliable than spreadsheet modeling. Such models mimic real-world behaviour and performance of businesses and other organisations with uncanny realism.

Kim is author of the prize-winning Competitive Strategy Dynamics (Wiley, 2002), a major strategy textbook Strategic Management Dynamics (Wiley, 2008), and summary e-book now widely used in MBA and executive teaching – Strategy Dynamics Essentials (Kindle, 2011). He is also co-founder of Strategy Dynamics Ltd, which publishes "serious games" and online courses exploiting the user-friendly modelling application, Silico.

John Smith

Developer

Highly Recommended Course. Easy to Understand, Informative, Very Well Organized. The Course is Full of Practical and Valuable for Anyone who wants to Enhance their Skills. Really Enjoyed it. Thank you!!

Course Pricing

Full price

£50

The full price for 'How to build an SIR model' - may be heavily discounted for Unis

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